Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Abdullah starts counting the numbers

DATUK Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's decision to "stand and fight" has begun in earnest. Yesterday, the Umno president and PM was in Kelantan to break fast and meet members of the Kelantan Umno Liaison Committee.

On Sunday, Abdullah was in Johor Baru. He'll be all over the country to meet as many Umno division chiefs as possible to tell his side of the story, ie, to try and defend his post as Umno's number one chief.

Many senior members of the supreme council have told him to forget the idea of defending his post in the December party elections. In fact, many of them told him to step down and pass the baton to his deputy, Datuk Seri Mohd Najib Tun Razak, ahead of the transition plan.

Under the plan, Abdullah is supposed to quit in June 2010 and pass the leadership to Najib. Many council members, grassroot leaders and ordinary members believe that 2010 is too late and could spell big problems for Umno and the Barisan Nasional come the next general election.

At the last council meeting, Abdullah was told to step aside and avoid a potentially-embarassing contest in December. Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah has offered himself to be nominated, and expressed confidence that he would get the 30 per cent quota needed to qualify to challenge for the post (ie at least 58 nominations out of 191).

Talk is widespread that Abdullah won't be able to get sufficient nominations to contest. Grassroot leaders have voiced open endorsement for Najib, with vice president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as the most popular choice for the deputy's post.

Hence, it's all in the numbers. As the incumbent, and under normal circumstances, Abdullah should have no problem in getting more than ample nominations. But this time around, the tide is seen to be not with him.

Council members told him he may not qualify to contest, basing their opinion on the feedback obtained from division chiefs all over the country. The BN/Umno defeat in five states in the March 8 election and Abdullah's leadership (or lack of it) style are often quoted as the main reasons for the decline in Abdullah's popularity.

Abdullah has ignored the warning from council members and has decided to meet as many divisional chiefs as possible before divisional meeting starts on Oct 9. Abdullah's plan is simple and direct. He has also told state chiefs, whom he appointed, to play their part in ensuring he gets sufficient nominations.

This, I'm told, has put the state chiefs in an awkward position. They can lay out the plans to division chiefs, but this does not mean the lower chiefs will listen and heed the plan. The lower chiefs, it now appears, have a mind of their own and have often voiced their displeasure with Abdullah.

Which explains why Abdullah is starting to count the numbers - those for him, and otherwise.

Questions: Can Abdullah truly influence state chiefs? Can state chiefs then influence the divisional and lower chiefs? How much can these chiefs withstand the pressure (and temptations) that are sure to come between now and their own divisional meetings?

14 comments:

kluangman said...

Di atas kertas, robot boleh memang sebab baterinya cukup dan dapat dikawal dengan baik dari jarak jauh. Seperti di pilihanraya lepas, gamaran semuanya 'ok'.

Bila tiba hari dan masanya...ada yang menangis tidak berlagu.

TPJ said...

Datuk, Salam.

How many of the chiefs who have pledged their nomination for him are safe from being defeated in their own divisions?

Divisional chiefs no longer have total say in the nominations. Pak Lah should know. If that was true, he wouldn't have to gauge his support as he is currently the number one man in the party. He shouldn't rely too much on the pledges. Many nominations will come from the floor this time as opposed to an endorsement from the division committee.

If there can be dissenting voices in the Supreme "Apple Polishing" Council, that MUST be a strong signal that his support is rapidly dwindling. He shouldn't bother taking the word of Tengku Adnan or Annuar Musa. He has the Special Branch, Military Intelligence, KEMAS, JASA and a whole lot of other agencies to gather enough information for him to make his decision from. The million dollar question is, does he ever read the reports?

Ahmad A Talib said...

Dear commentators,

Please refrain from name calling. It doesn't work and reflects badly on us. I seek your cooperation in this. For those of you who have given such uncomplimentary names to the people I've written about, I urge you to just use the name as given to them. TQ

jimmy said...

kluangman dan semua,

mari kita buat datuk dolah menangis lagi..

Anonymous said...

He was told what was going to happen in march 2008 but he prefers not to listen. Now, his reaction for October 2008 is no defferent. The irony is a muslim don't trip twice at the same place but this one will be an exception. His fate is as good as sealed but the deputy on the other hand just cannot let go, even in a sinking ship. Maybe its all for the better. Start afresh with KuLi and TMY without much historical baggage for the ooposition to cling to!

Malaysia Digest said...

AAB is not worry. All UMNO past presidents always get enough nomination.

kijangmas perkasa said...

Hi Datuk,

Your old telco buddy here.

Pak Lah is a good man. But he is also a weak man.

His bastion of strength was arwah Kak Endon and his mother, arwah Datuk Kailan. They are gone now and he has never been the same.

He is pulled left, right and centre by personalities that live off his incumbency. They are not about to let go of the gravy train of wealth and power. Without Kak Endon's steady hand, Pak Lah has become gullible, impressionable, and indecisive amidst the plethora of bad advise inundating his senses.

Again, Pak Lah is a good man. But also a weak man. A weak man, who cannot say no to ambitious members of his own household and assorted courtiers and psychopants, cannot run a country as complex, as divisive, and as combustible as Malaysia.

I wish him good luck and happiness in his retirement by year end.

Awang Maya said...

Mana-mana bahagian yang cuba mencalonkan Pak Lah, mari kita semua umat Melayu mengisytiharkan bahawa UMNO bahagian berkenaan adalah terdiri daripada orang-orang yang mementingkan TEMOLOK sendiri, tamak dan tidak memikirkan kepentingan parti dan bangsa. Golongan yang disamakan segelintir golongan bangsawan yang menjadi punca kejatuhan Melaka di tangan Portugis. Mereka ini kita akan kenangkan sebagai petualang Melayu. Dan mereka ini sememangnya akan kaya raya disumbat duit oleh KJ and konconya namun mereka ini adalah golongan Melayu BODOH dan bangsat. Di antara mereka yang telah tergolong di dalam kumpulan petualang Melayu, bodoh dan bangsat ini ialah Ketua Perhubungan UMNO P.Pinang dan Kelantan. Well, you know Annuar Musa. Manusia yang tak sedar diri dan desperate. Awang berdoa bahagian UMNO yang lain-lain tidak tegolong di dalam kelompok tersebut. Amin..

apanama said...

Latest! Looks like we already have TWO Specials Advisers for the PM on NCER Dtk.

Anonymous said...

Najib will get the nominations to secure his post as the PM. As for the DPM there will be a dark horse who is more favoured by Najib to fill in the gap rather than Muhyiddin. In this trying times we need another Tun Ghafar to stabilise the party and country and this is the man will provide that stability. Trust me on this.

Penanak Nasik

Akar umbi UMNO Damansara Utama said...

Salam Datuk,

Just to comment on TPJ's suggestion for Pak Lah to refer MI, SB and other intelligence services.

We have been reliably informed that UMNO leaders in Permatang Pauh were told by MI that there's a minor possibility of Arif Shah winning by a small majority, or if not, Anwar's margin would be significantly less than Wan Azizah.

From this we can assume that MI has gotten their facts wrong, or the info has been massaged to assuage the ego of leaders.

Nevertheless, we are now in a situation where we may have a leader that does not listen to intelligence reports AND intelligence sources perhaps sprucing up reports just so that the leaders would listen to them.

Sad situation.

www.suaradu.com

Anonymous said...

Dato,

Jika Pak Lah lepas 58 pencalonan pun ia masih mendedahkan desperado Pak Lah. Pertama kali dlm sejarah parti seorang presiden dijangka tidak akan dapat pencalonan yg cukup. Pak Lah tak ada malu langsung ke?

OK katakanlah Pak Lah dapat 58 pencalonan, tetapi Muhyuddin pula dapat 100, Ku Li dapat 80 dsbnya. Apakah Pak Lah masih nak bertanding lagi?

Soalannya apakah Pak Lah perjuangkan? Nasib parti atau nasib sendiri? Tabung rakyat atau tabung lain?

Sudah hilang 5 negeri, sudah hilang 2/3, sudah hilang sokongan parti tetapi mahu juga tanding jawatan. Untuk siapa dan untuk apa?

Apakah perjuangan Pak Lah bagi parti, bangsa, rakyat dan negara? Tidak ada apa pun? Dah jemu macam hayat nak habis saya tunggu apakah dasar Pak Lah yg baru yg boleh memulihkan keadaan dlm negara. Tak ada pun.

Banding dgn Ayahanda Dr Mahathir - walaupun tiada kuasa, Tun beri nasihat suruh 'peg the Ringgit' sekali lagi.

Setuju atau tidak setuju itu bab nombor dua tetapi apa yang penting ialah Tun masih khuatir dan ambil berat hal negara. Dan beliau sanggup memberi nasihat yg berguna dan bernas.

Tetapi selain dpd mempertahankan jawatan, apakah sumbangan idea dan usaha tenaga Pak Lah utk mejukan negara dan bangsa? Tiada satu pun. Hanya cakap, cakap, cakap saja. Dan itu pun membebel saja.

Jelas bhwa beliau mati-matian pertahankan jawatan kerana urusan keluarga 'ter$angkut', ter$angkut banyak juga itu.

Anonymous said...

The best leader in the world is the person who feels that he is unworthy of leading. For this shows that he is humble. And humility is an indispensable quality of leadership.

Ehsanollah

Anonymous said...

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